HOMODYNE SILENT BREAKTHROUGH / HMD-003
01 / 15 · 00:00

Elit forest, Mazandaran. November 2025.

WHEREElit

near Marzanabad, Chalus county · Hyrcanian forest (UNESCO-listed)

HOW LONG2+ weeks

controlled once, flared again on 17 Nov 2025

Iran International, 17 Nov 2025 · IQAir: fully contained by 25 Nov 2025

HOMODYNE SILENT BREAKTHROUGH / HMD-003
02 / 15 · 00:43 · GUESS FIRST

One hot dot. Fire? Factory? Sensor glitch?

FALSE ALARMWe say "fire". It wasn't. A crew drives into a remote valley for nothing.
MISSWe say "no fire". It was. A fire a few people could stop gets time to grow.

هر نقطهٔ داغ سه توضیح ممکن دارد و هر اشتباه یک هزینه.

HOMODYNE SILENT BREAKTHROUGH / HMD-003
03 / 15 · 01:46 · SATELLITES SEE HEAT, NOT FLAMES
≈ 14 haone VIIRS pixel ≈ 375 m × 375 m ≈ 20 football pitches · pixel size ≠ smallest detectable fire

هر نقطه یعنی «جایی در این مربع، در لحظهٔ عبور ماهواره، داغ بود».

HOMODYNE SILENT BREAKTHROUGH / HMD-003
04 / 15 · 02:49 · ONE ROW OF NASA FIRMS
latitude,longitude,bright_ti4,scan,track,acq_date,acq_time,satellite,instrument,confidence,version,bright_ti5,frp,daynight 36.4210,51.3360,349.1,0.43,0.38,2024-09-03,2200,N,VIIRS,h,2,295.2,6.8,N
LAT, LONpixel centre, not the fire itself
DATE, TIMEUTC · Tehran = +03:30
SATELLITEN = Suomi NPP · N20 = NOAA-20
CONFIDENCEl · n · h
FRPfire radiative power, MW

ILLUSTRATIVE row from artifact/sample_firms_ILLUSTRATIVE.csv · same layout as a FIRMS VIIRS CSV

HOMODYNE SILENT BREAKTHROUGH / HMD-003
05 / 15 · 03:56 · THE FIRST DOT IS NOT THE FIRE
$ python3 artifact/firms_timeline.py --demo # excerpt !! ILLUSTRATIVE SAMPLE: synthetic rows for teaching, not FIRMS data !! rows in box/dates: 18 · kept: 15 · dropped below 'nominal': 3 date n flagged max FRP bar 2024-09-01 1 1 3.6 x 2024-09-02 1 1 4.1 x 2024-09-03 4 1 6.8 x### 2024-09-04 7 1 18.9 x###### 2024-09-05 2 1 5.6 x# 2024-09-01 22:04 01:34 N nominal 3.6 36.531 51.468 near SITE-A (0.2 km); recurring (5 days)

Real output of the script on ILLUSTRATIVE data (2 Nov 2026) · # unflagged · x flagged

HOMODYNE SILENT BREAKTHROUGH / HMD-003
06 / 15 · 04:50 · A CHIMNEY STAYS PUT

Same spot, 5 nights in a row → probably not a spreading fire.

NEAR A LISTED SITEWithin 2 km of a site in your own list. Wrong when a real fire starts next to a factory.
RECURRINGHot on 3+ different days within 0.5 km. Wrong when a fire smoulders in one place.
FIRMS "TYPE"Some archive files: 2 = other static land source. Absent in near-real-time data.

علامت یعنی «با احتیاط نگاه کن»، نه «پاکش کن».

HOMODYNE SILENT BREAKTHROUGH / HMD-003
07 / 15 · 05:53 · STRICT OR SENSITIVE?

Minimum confidence decides what counts as fire.

low18
nominal15
high7

ILLUSTRATIVE · script output: "kept if threshold were: low -> 18 nominal -> 15 high -> 7" · at "low", a weak dot at the later fire spot appears ~12 h earlier — and so does a weak daytime dot unrelated to fire

HOMODYNE SILENT BREAKTHROUGH / HMD-003
08 / 15 · 06:54 · ELIT · ABAN 1404

How much burned? Official estimates differ ~20×.

Agriculture deputy~8 ha
Natural Resources~10 ha
Environment deputy150–180 ha

fires reported 10 Aban (1 Nov 2025) and again 24 Aban (15 Nov) · satellite timeline: next video · read FIRMS as "what the satellite saw at overpass"

HOMODYNE SILENT BREAKTHROUGH / HMD-003
09 / 15 · 07:59 · BUT ONE PART OF THIS MAP LIMPS

No ground truth → no precision, no recall.

between overpassescloudheavy smoketree canopy

Why FIRMS may miss a fire: it started and ended between overpasses, or cloud, heavy smoke or tree canopy hid it

HOMODYNE SILENT BREAKTHROUGH / HMD-003
10 / 15 · 08:58 · THE SILENT BREAKTHROUGH
FireSat can detect fires as small as 5 × 5 m — about two parking spaces.Earth Fire Alliance & Muon Space · first operational FireSat imagery · 16 Sep 2026 (paraphrase)
JUL 20263 satellites reach orbit (7 Jul)
~3 WEEKS LATERfirst light over Dubbo, NSW
NEXT DAYa single hotspot, Porto District, Portugal
3 NIGHTS · 2 DAYS5 views of one front, Big Grass Fire, Oregon–Idaho

Official FireSat images only, shown separately · our map is FIRMS/VIIRS, not FireSat

HOMODYNE SILENT BREAKTHROUGH / HMD-003
11 / 15 · 10:00 · WHERE THE AI IS

The AI asks our question, every 5 m.

WAS IT HOT BEFORE?past imagery

our script: "recurring"

WHAT IS NEARBY?infrastructure

our script: "near SITE"

WHAT IS THE WEATHER?local weather

not in our script

Google, "A breakthrough in wildfire detection", 16 Sep 2024: the model compares each 5 × 5 m spot with previous imagery, plus nearby infrastructure and local weather

HOMODYNE SILENT BREAKTHROUGH / HMD-003
12 / 15 · 11:00 · 20 MINUTES IS A TARGET, NOT TODAY
END 2026operational data ≥ 2× a day to early adopters
2028global access expected
2029hourly global revisit
EARLY 2030severy 20 minutes

آتش کوچک دیدنی شده است؛ «همه‌جا و هر بیست دقیقه» هنوز هدف است. دیدن آتش، خاموش‌کردنش نیست.

HOMODYNE SILENT BREAKTHROUGH / HMD-003
13 / 15 · 11:53 · CLAIM BOUNDARY
THIS SHOWSHow to read a VIIRS hot-spot map · why a static heat source can look like fire · that FireSat, by its own report, imaged small fires from orbit.
THIS DOES NOT SHOWThat our map is FireSat · that every hot spot is a forest fire · how accurate VIIRS is in northern Iran · that satellites saw the Elit fire before people did · FireSat coverage over Iran today.
HOMODYNE SILENT BREAKTHROUGH / HMD-003
14 / 15 · 12:38 · THE ANSWER

A hot spot is a lead, not a verdict.

POSSIBLE NOW5 × 5 m

purpose-built satellites have imaged fires this small

IN OUR HANDS TODAY375 m

VIIRS hot spots, a few passes a day

تمرین: برنامه را برای منطقهٔ خودت اجرا کن. اولین نقطهٔ بدون علامت کِی بود؟ از کجا می‌دانی آتش بود؟

HOMODYNE SILENT BREAKTHROUGH / HMD-003
15 / 15 · 13:25 · NEXT · HMD-004

Is the #1 model on the leaderboard #1 for you?

#1?
#2?
#3?

Detection depends on the metric. So does a leaderboard.